The Rise of the Synthetic Consumer
A new technological frontier is rapidly emerging, threatening to redefine the landscape of the consulting industry: AI synthetic audiences. These innovative systems aim to generate digital versions of people that can be surveyed almost instantly and affordably, offering a stark contrast to the traditional, time-consuming, and expensive methods of market research and polling.
The concept involves prompting AI with information about a person, allowing the AI to simulate their thoughts, behaviors, priorities, and decisions. This can range from creating specific personas with detailed biographies to inventing non-specific placeholder individuals for broad surveys. Several firms, including startups like Electric Twin, Artificial Societies, and Aaru, alongside established players like Dentsu, have already launched products in this burgeoning domain.
A War on Traditional Consulting
The advent of AI synthetic audiences signals a brewing "war" between AI and the traditional consulting giants such as McKinsey, Nielsen, and Gartner. Any consulting work that involves analyzing people, encompassing areas like marketing, research, and polling, will inevitably need to contend with this transformative technology.
What once required months to survey real people and compile findings, costing thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars, can now reportedly be accomplished in minutes for a fraction of the cost. Eren Celebi, a Principal Engineer at WPP, a global growth consulting and technology agency, highlights this shift, noting that with basic information like age, neighborhood, and gender, certain behaviors can be modeled with 72% accuracy.
Accuracy and the "Faster, Smarter, Cheaper" Promise
While the speed and cost-effectiveness of synthetic audiences are undeniable, the question of accuracy remains a critical point of discussion. A seminal 2024 paper from Stanford by Park et al. established a benchmark, demonstrating that AI can simulate human responses to surveys with an average of 85% accuracy. For certain sections of the general social survey, the models even replicated answers with over 90% accuracy.
This high level of accuracy is often achieved when the AI model is provided with relevant information and rich context, such as a mini-biography of the simulated person. The famed venture capital firm Andreessen-Horowitz (a16z) has encapsulated the promise of this technology with the title of its analysis: "Faster, smarter, cheaper."